To cite, please include the following: The Program on Health Workforce Research and Policy at the Cecil G Sheps Center. “NC Nursecast: A Supply and Demand Model for Nurses in North Carolina.” November 1, 2021. https://ncnursecast.unc.edu/briefs/summary/
Introduction
NC Nursecast is the culmination of more than two
years of development by the Cecil G. Sheps Center’s Program on Health
Workforce Research and Policy with funding from the North Carolina
Board of Nursing.
The Supply & Demand Model
is an interactive, web-based tool that forecasts the future supply and
demand for Registered Nurses (RNs) and Licensed Practical Nurses
(LPNs) in various practice settings in North Carolina. The model is
based on historical nurse licensure data, state population data,
health care utilization data, and expert input from a nursing advisory
committee. These sources were used to develop baseline estimates of
how many nurses NC will have and how many nurses NC will require from
2019-2033.
The Graduate Diffusion
Tool is a separate
interactive, web-based tool that allows users to see where students in
NC’s nurse training program practice after graduating. The tool shows
the percent of each program’s graduates working in North Carolina, the
percent employed in different settings, and the percent located in
rural areas.
What Makes NC Nursecast Unique
The model provides forecasts of North Carolina’s future nurse workforce
that can be accessed through an interactive website with customizable,
downloadable data and visualizations (line charts, regional maps, and
state graduate diffusion maps). The model offers users the ability to
examine possible surpluses and shortages by nurse practice setting
(hospital, home care/hospice, correctional facility, etc.) and region
(Medicaid regions, AHEC regions, metro/nonmetro). The model also
allows users to explore different “what if” scenarios that could alter
the forecast. For example, what if nurses experience increased burnout
and exit practice two years early or five years early? Conversely,
what if more students enter nurse training programs?
Key Findings
By 2033, North Carolina faces an estimated
shortage of nearly 12,500 registered nurses and slightly more than
5,000 LPNs. Those projections represent an 11% shortfall for RNs and a
27% shortfall for LPNs.
Setting Findings
The largest numeric shortfalls for RNs will occur in hospitals, where
demand could exceed supply by nearly 10,000 positions by 2033.
Nursing home, extended care, and assisted living facilities employ
the greatest number of LPNs and these settings face a nearly 50%
forecasted shortage of LPNs by 2033.
Region Findings
Most regions of the state are projected to face RN shortages except
for the Southeast region; all regions are projected to face LPN
shortages.
Large metropolitan areas face significantly higher RN shortages than
non-metro areas; both metro and non-metro areas face similar levels
of LPN shortages.
“What if” Scenario Findings
If nurses were to leave the workforce five years earlier than past
trends would predict, the nursing shortage would be significantly
worsened—exceeding 21,000 RNs and 6,000 LPNs by 2033.
If these early exits from the nurse workforce are combined with
increased competition for nurses from other states, but also offset
somewhat by increased enrollment in nursing programs, the net effect
would be a shortage of over 18,000 RNs and nearly 6,000 LPNs.
Graduate Diffusion Findings
NC nursing programs produce graduates who practice locally,
especially in the Southeast. Use our Graduate Diffusion
Tool to see
school-specific graduate “footprints.”
Policy Options
Although increasing nursing program enrollments alone will not solve
workforce shortages, increasing funding of nursing programs, raising
faculty wages so they can better compete with clinical salaries, and
addressing the shortage of preceptors in the state can help increase
supply. The good news is that investments in nursing programs yield a
high return on investment, with high graduate retention (Table 1).
Table 1. Nursing Program Retention Rates in North Carolina
Nurse Education Programs in North Carolina
Retention Rate in NC
Retention in NC Non-metropolitan counties*
Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) Programs
92%
33%
Associate Degree Nurse (ADN) Programs
92%
29%
Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) Programs
86%
10%
Source: NC Tower data. https://nctower.com. NC Nursecast. https://ncnursecast.unc.edu/diffusion. *Among nurses who stay in North Carolina. Non-metropolitan counties are defined using the 2017 Office of Management and Budget Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs). Rural/non-metropolitan counties include micropolitan counties and counties without CBSAs. Using this definition, NC has 54 non-metropolitan counties.
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Supply & Demand
Want to learn about the future supply and demand of our state's licensed practical
nurses and registered nurses across settings and geographic regions?
This project is brought to you by The Cecil G. Sheps Center For Health Services Research at the
University of North Carolina in partnership with the North Carolina Board of Nursing.